أثر السياسة المالية والنقدية على الاستثمار الخاص في الأردن: خلال الفترة (1980-2009)
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- Category: Department of Business Administration and marketing
- Published: Sunday, 22 April 2012 03:00
- Written by Abdullah Al-zyuod
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Abstract
The Effect of Fiscal and Monetary Policy on Private Investment in Jordan
By Using Time Series Analyses
Abdullah Al-zyuod
Mu`tah University, 2011
This study aims to analyze the evolution of investment in Jordan during (1980- 2009) period, with special concentration on private investment according to:
its forms , Sectoral distributions. The study aims also to estimate the relationship between private investment and a list of factors such as ( Gross Domestic Product , interest rate , government spending, money supply and taxes ).
To achieve this aim the study applied the method of Vector Auto Regression (VAR).
The study also conduct many tests which include :
Stationarity , time lag selection, and Granger Causality .
the results of the study revealed that gross domestic product government spending , money supply and interest rate are Stationary at level. while the private investment is not stable at level but stable at first difference , also direct tax is not stable at level but stable at second difference.
The" Granger" test of causality showed that :
1) there was bidirectional relationship between investment and money supply, that mean each on cause the other .
2) there was unidirectional relationship from interest rate to investment.
3) there was unidirectional relationship from investment to direct taxes .
The results of variance decomposition analysis and impulse response function revealed that the Gross Domestic Product , government expenditure and money supply positively affect private investment.whereas the real interest rate and direct taxes negatively impact private investment in Jordan, these results agreed with economic theories and previous studies in same topic.
The study recommends using fiscal and monetary policies in such a way that encourage private investment.